Mientras meditaba sobre algún tema para escribir, se me “apareció” la fotografía que acompaña este artículo. En ella vemos a un huérfano, apenas acabada la II Guerra Mundial. El niño muestra la prestigiosa “Cruz de Hierro” del ejército alemán, había sido de su padre, y la ofrece a cambio de cigarrillos. La imagen nos obliga a ser testigos del sufrimiento de los derrotados: todo lo habían perdido, hasta el orgullo. Sin embargo, hoy Alemania tiene un rostro más feliz, gracias a lo que se conoce como el “Milagro económico alemán”.
Por otro lado, Venezuela atraviesa, en este año 2017, por la peor crisis económica de su historia. Los indicadores de la misma son dramáticos, y la población padece penurias, solo vistas en un país arrasado por la guerra:
• La inflación más alta del mundo en el año 2016, sin signos de mejora en el 2017.
• Cierre de empresas, abandono de las tierras de cultivo y disminución de producción de petróleo.
• Descenso de las exportaciones de hidrocarburos y de productos no tradicionales.
• Ausencia de inversiones extranjeras, fuga de capitales y depreciación de la moneda.
• Emigración masiva de población, la mayoría profesionales universitarios.
• Escasez de alimentos, medicinas y otros artículos de consumo básico.
• Deterioro de la infraestructura: carreteras, escuelas, hospitales.
• Fallas en los servicios públicos y precarización de las condiciones mínimas de vida.
Este escenario me hace pensar en nuestro futuro. En qué acciones se deberían implementar en Venezuela, con la urgencia debida, para la recuperación y el crecimiento económico. Así como, en su momento, lo hizo Alemania.
Un país en ruinas
Es bueno recordar que, al finalizar la guerra, Alemania había perdido gran parte de su población. La catástrofe sufrida obligaba a la reconstrucción de viviendas, escuelas, hospitales y carreteras. Escaseaban los alimentos básicos. Las industrias debían reorientar sus líneas de producción para atender las necesidades de un país en paz pero en la pobreza total. Se hacía necesaria la atención de millones de pobladores que habían quedado en total desamparo.
Tampoco olvidemos que, incluso su territorio, fue botín de guerra, desmembrado en 1949 entre las potencias victoriosas. Estados Unidos (USA) e Inglaterra ocuparon la parte occidental, y la Unión Soviética ocupó el lado oriental del país.
En la República Federal de Alemania (RFA), tutelada por USA e Inglaterra, se nombra en 1948 a Ludwig Erhard como Ministro de Economía. A él, y al Plan Marshall, se atribuye la asombrosa recuperación económica alemana.
Las medidas milagrosas
Una de las primeras decisiones de Erhard fue la creación de una nueva moneda. El 20 de junio de 1948 se crea el marco alemán (“Deutsche Mark”) que vino a sustituir al “Reichmark”. La antigua moneda era rechazada, debido a su poco valor y a su depreciación constante, producto de la inflación. Con ello se recuperaba un elemento fundamental de toda economía: Un signo monetario estable y con poder de compra. El marco alemán desapareció, en el año 2002, con la entrada en circulación del euro, como moneda de la Unión Europea.
Al contrario de su “mitad” comunista (llamada orwellianamente República Democrática Alemana), la República Federal optó por el sendero de la libre empresa. Sin descuidar a una población necesitada de asistencia por parte del Estado. Lo que constituyó una experiencia exitosa, de lo que hoy se conoce como economía social de mercado.
Los Estados Unidos aportaron para la recuperación alemana, a través del Plan Marshall, la cantidad de 1.448 millones de dólares, desde 1948 hasta 1951.
Se suprimieron la mayoría de los controles de precios y regulaciones existentes, incluyendo la cartilla de racionamiento de alimentos.
Por supuesto, la transición no fue fácil, había dudas si se estaba haciendo lo correcto, y hubo la natural resistencia a las medidas. Pero se pudieron sortear los obstáculos, y los resultados fueron extraordinarios. El milagro económico alemán fue producto de: La decisión de las autoridades y la laboriosidad de todo el pueblo. Finalmente, en 1989, se reunificó Alemania como un solo país, con la caída del Muro de Berlín.
Por dónde empezar en Venezuela
Lo primero es saber que hay esperanzas. No solo Alemania Federal, si no también Japón e Italia, lograron recuperarse después de una conflagración tan destructiva. Y en tiempos recientes, vecinos nuestros han visto desmoronarse sus economías y resurgir poco después. Lo importante es que los responsables de tomar las decisiones, asuman su compromiso con la población. A no ser que, y eso sería el problema, prefieran un pueblo miserable y sumiso a uno prospero y libre.
Revisemos algunas propuestas en ese sentido, repetidas una y otra vez, por políticos, economistas e intelectuales dentro y fuera de Venezuela:
Una de las recomendaciones es el levantamiento de los controles de precios. Lo cual crearía incentivos para la fabricación de bienes, cuyos precios han estado anclados, mientras sus costos de producción aumentan debido a la inflación.
A la par de lo anterior, se insiste en la liberación del tipo de cambio. Se busca con ello un aumento de la oferta de divisas en el mercado, disminuyendo el valor del dólar paralelo.
Recuperar la infraestructura básica del país. Mejorar las carreteras, puertos y aeropuertos; no sólo en su parte física, si no también administrativa. Igualmente, dignificar las escuelas y hospitales, tan necesarios para el bienestar de la población.
Abatir la inflación, como el gran enemigo que es. Se ha sostenido que el origen del incremento de los precios es el aumento de la masa monetaria. Se acusa al Banco Central de Venezuela de financiar, con dinero inorgánico, al gobierno nacional, ocasionando al alza de los precios.
Reinstitucionalizar al Estado. La derogación de leyes intervencionistas y respeto a las normas constitucionales, son necesarios para generar confianza a los inversionistas, nacionales y extranjeros.
Las anteriores medidas son lugares comunes de la economía contemporánea. Al contrario de la Alemania de 1949, en la actualidad se sabe qué políticas económicas NO DEBEN TOMARSE, si se busca la prosperidad de los países.
Es más difícil ponerse de acuerdo en las medidas de ajuste a aplicar, así como los tiempos y la profundidad de las mismas. Pero todo pasa porque exista la voluntad política, por parte de los agentes gubernamentales, de llevar adelante un programa económico coherente. Un programa que, sin descuidar los aspectos sociales, promueva las inversiones y el crecimiento económico. No va a ser fácil, no va ser rápido, pero es necesario comenzar YA.
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